Autumn 2025 Budget predictions – a roundup

Recently, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that the Autumn 2025 Budget will take place on 26th November. Since then, speculation has been rife and Budget predictions have emerged in all sorts of places. As always, some of these Budget predictions are more credible than others. Some may also influence how you plan financially over the coming weeks. So, for these reasons, we’ve rounded up some of the more common predictions to help you get prepared.

Some background to the Autumn 2025 Budget

As we approach the Autumn 2025 Budget, one thing’s clear: the Chancellor needs to raise a lot of cash. The government currently faces a £41.2 billion shortfall by 2029-30. It has also ruled out raising Income Tax, VAT and National Insurance. Given that Labour has committed to slash public debt, increased borrowing is out of the question. That leaves taxation – as long as it meets the Labour manifesto pledge of not increasing taxes on working people.

With this background, it’s not surprising that a lot of the Budget predictions are for quite imaginative forms of taxation. Let’s take a look at what they are.

A summary of Autumn 2025 Budget predictions

Before we start listing the more credible Budget predictions we’ve found, remember there is no guarantee they will happen. We hope they will be helpful, but please use the information with caution. We can’t take responsibility for any decisions you make as a result of reading it!

Budget predictions concerning property

1. Landlords to pay National Insurance on rental income. This was reported in The Times. We have blogged about it in more detail here.
2. Stamp Duty to be replaced by a new property tax. The Guardian reports that government will replace Stamp Duty with a national property tax on on the sale of homes worth over £500,000. It also reports that ministers are considering replacing Council Tax with a local property tax. However, this would take time to implement so is more likely to happen in the medium term.

Predictions about pensions

1. Pension tax relief to be restricted. Currently, higher rate taxpayers get relief of 40% on pension savings, while additional rate taxpayers get 45%. Basic rate taxpayers get 20%. There are various predictions that these may be replaced by a flat rate of as low as 20%. One Guardian opinion piece recommends a rate of 25%.
2. The 25% tax free lump sum on pensions to be capped. This will be based on a maximum pension value. This is Money reports that there is already a surge in savers removing tax-free cash from their pension pots.
3. Pensions annual allowance to be reduced. In the 2025/26 tax year, you’re allowed to pay £60,000 tax-free into your pension. Some predictions have suggested this will be reduced back down to £40,000.

Other Budget predictions

1. Aligning CGT rates to Income Tax rates. This is something the IFS has campaigned for.
2. Changes to Inheritance Tax. According to MoneyWeek, this could include a cap on lifetime gifting, plus changes to taper relief (or the ‘seven-year rule’). Although the article doesn’t mention this, it’s possible the chancellor will also crack down on the IHT rules concerning gifts out of income.
3. A gambling tax rise. Among others, the Independent points to a potential rise in gambling taxes. This is something that former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been campaigning for.
4. A wealth tax. The TUC has been lobbying the Chancellor to consider a wealth tax to raise extra revenue.

How to respond to these Budget predictions

As always, the game of Budget predictions is always a bit hit or miss. Last year there were also rumours that tax-free pension withdrawals were in the Chancellor’s line of fire. In the event, nothing changed. This meant many people who pulled out money from their pension pots before the Budget regretted doing so.

When it comes to finances, nothing compares with taking a long-term view and spreading risk where possible. For this reason, always talk to a financial advisor you trust. When it comes to making your wealth, income or investments more tax-efficient, our tax planning service could also be invaluable. Get in touch today to learn more.